Q3 2020 brought more relief and it’s clear that recovery of demand is well underway. However, on digging deeper, we found variances in performance across categories and regions. Here are some emerging trends:
Changing Buying Patterns: There’s a visible change in the buying behaviours of distributors, stockists and retailers. They are moving away from fortnightly or monthly replenishment cycles to weekly cycles.
Alternative Distribution Strategies: Brands are reinventing their trade models to combat supply chain disruptions. They are increasingly relying on real-time data to strategise their route to market. Retailers, meanwhile, are buying more frequently though in smaller quantities.
Category & Regional Variances: There are variances across categories. Packaged Food which saw an initial surge post-lockdown is now ~20% down. The South Indian region saw a drastic dip in demand in the third quarter compared to the second.
Meanwhile, here’s a brief overview of the performance of demand for the top FMCG categories.
- The category seems to have developed fortnight peaks in the West and North regions in Q3 when compared to Q1.
- Post-mid-June, the number of outlets buying has increased while the value demand is less. It indicates that outlets are buying more frequently but in smaller quantities.
- Q3 sees stable demand for beverages and weekly buying outlets have reached January levels.
- Demand for beverages is higher in Northern and Eastern regions.
- In Q2 and the beginning of Q3, the deviation in demand spikes for the category seem to have tamped down. By the end of the quarter, we could start seeing the fortnightly buying pattern back again. Will be interesting to see data for the next quarter.
- Overall, OOH consumption products have led to a drop in demand.
- Personal Care follows a monthly peak which is in line with monthly consumer purchase patterns.
- Out-of-home interactions will continue to drive a strong recovery.
- Dairy products continue to see a fortnightly buying pattern.
- Demand varies during times of religious activities and festivities.
- With fewer people going out or working from offices, there’s been a drop in consumption. This impact on Horeca’s contribution has impacted the overall demand.
- Home Care shows typical month-end ordering patterns.
- Home hygiene is on top priority among all consumers.
- One of the most distributed products in quarter three.
Six weeks into the lockdown the category saw a strong revival despite it traditionally being the “off-season”. This potentially reflected the consumer’s craving for indulgence amid the growing pandemic.
CPG India Performance Report
In this report, we capture insights by analysing data from ~30% of the retail universe across 400 districts/2000 towns and cities in India. It covers a population of 800 million+ Indian consumers providing clear trends.
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